4% Rule Calculator

See how a retirement balance holds up under a first-year withdrawal rate, a return, and an inflation rate you choose.

The 4% rule says to withdraw 4% of a portfolio in the first year of retirement, then raise that dollar amount with inflation every year. This calculator runs that arithmetic, year by year, under one steady return and one steady inflation rate that you pick. It is an illustration under the assumptions you choose, not a forecast, and it says nothing about what markets will do.

New to the rule? What is the 4% rule?

The interactive version takes a starting balance, a first-year withdrawal as a percent or in dollars, a number of years, a yearly return, and a yearly inflation rate, then shows the balance year by year, the ending balance, and whether the balance runs short under those assumptions. The withdrawal follows the classic rule: the first-year dollars, raised with inflation every year after, whatever the balance does.

The return and the inflation rate are an illustration you choose, not a forecast. The return presets are the platform's own long-term planning assumptions for each mix, stated as the rate it compounds at over decades: assumptions, not predictions, and not a recommendation of any mix.

What it leaves out

• Sequence of returns risk. Real returns arrive unevenly. Two retirements with the same average return can end very differently if the poor years come first, because withdrawals taken in a down market sell more of the portfolio. A steady yearly return, like the one here, cannot show that.
• Fees. Fees come out of the portfolio every year and are not modeled here. Lower the return to see their effect.
• Taxes. A withdrawal from a tax-deferred account is not all spending money. Taxes are not modeled.
• The asset mix. The research behind the rule used roughly half to three quarters stocks. A very different mix is a different question.
• The horizon. The original research tested 30-year retirements. A longer retirement is outside what it tested.
• Everything else in a plan. Social Security, pensions, spending that changes over time, and one-time costs all change what a portfolio has to supply.

Read more: What is the 4% rule? · What is sequence of returns risk?. How the calculator works, with a worked example: the 4% rule calculator guide.

Educational only. This calculator shows arithmetic under one steady return and one steady inflation rate that you choose. It is a hypothetical illustration, not a projection of any investment, and not a forecast. It does not consider your individual circumstances, is not investment advice or a recommendation, and does not say what withdrawal rate is right for anyone. Nothing you enter is stored.

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